Aamir Khan is back on the big screen this weekend with Sitaare Zameen Par, his first film in three years from director RS Prasanna. Naturally, expectations are sky-high, both for the content and, more importantly, for the box office numbers. But hold on to your popcorn, because early trends suggest the anticipation isn’t quite translating into ticket sales. (And if you’re keeping score, ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’s advance booking is already way behind ‘Kesari Chapter 2’, ‘Jaat’, and ‘Sikandar’.)

‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ Box Office Prediction: A Very Slow Start for Mr. Perfectionist?
For over a decade, Aamir reigned supreme at the Bollywood box office. Yet, he’s been struggling to find his Midas touch again after the disappointments of ‘Thugs of Hindostan’ and ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’. He’s probably hoping ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ will be his big comeback, the film that wins back the hearts of the masses. But while some whispers suggested a ₹10-11 crore opening, our sources paint a different, grimmer picture. A trade insider revealed that the buzz is the film might just scrape past ₹5-6 crore net on its opening day in India. If that holds true, ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ would manage only half of what Aamir’s last film, ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’ – which was itself a box office dud – did three years ago. Remember, ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’ opened to a rather meek ₹11.70 crore in August 2022.

The advance booking numbers are frankly, not pretty. As of 9 AM on Thursday, just 24 hours before release, ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’s advance booking for its opening day has barely crossed the ₹1 crore mark. To put that in perspective, ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’ had already hit ₹5.65 crore in advance bookings, and the recent Bollywood hit ‘Housefull 5’ raked in ₹10.05 crore!

With a reported budget of ₹80 crore, trade sources say ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’ needs a net collection of ₹100 crore in India to be considered a hit. That’s going to be an uphill battle if it starts with a paltry ₹5-6 crore opening. An Aamir Khan film definitely needs more than that, especially when it’s aiming for big numbers. Even Sunny Deol’s ‘Jaat’ and Rajkummar Rao’s ‘Bhool Chuk Maaf’ had better opening day numbers, and neither of those films even touched the ₹100 crore mark domestically.

However, some optimists are still holding out hope, banking on positive word-of-mouth. It’s true that many of Aamir’s films, like ‘Dangal’, have seen their collections soar after a strong audience reception. ‘Dangal’s second Sunday, for instance, was higher than its opening day. But here’s the catch: those films had a solid foundation. ‘Dangal’ may have earned ₹32 crore on its second Sunday, but its opening day was a healthy ₹29 crore!

So, What Exactly Went Wrong?
Aamir Khan was once hailed as a marketing genius, an artist who knew how to perfectly sell his films. That Midas touch helped him shatter box office records even with unconventional, non-massy films like ‘3 Idiots’, ‘PK’, and ‘Dangal’. But it seems he hasn’t been able to replicate that magic with ‘Laal Singh Chaddha’, and now, with ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’.

Film trade analyst Atul Mohan shared a possible reason: “Aamir Khan, who is known as a marketing genius, seems to have been let down by his marketing and PR team this time. He is doing so many interviews, but the message about his film does not come across. I hope the film does well, because I want films to do well at the box office, but so far, the buzz is low.” ‘Sitaare Zameen Par’, directed by RS Prasanna, features Aamir as a basketball coach leading a team of special needs children. The film also stars Genelia D’Souza and introduces 10 special needs actors to the big screen. Could strong reviews and audience love turn the tide for Aamir Khan, or is he indeed staring at another box office disappointment? We’ll have to wait and see how the weekend unfolds.